Quantification of total uncertainty in modeling biological systems
Presenter
May 6, 2025
Abstract
Quantification of the total uncertainty due to multiple sources includes irreducible aleatoric uncertainty due to noise in the data, epistemic uncertainty induced by insufficient data or inadequate parameterization and model-form uncertainty related to the use of misspecified model equations. We willpresent several examples and focus on a six-compartment stiff ODE system, the CVSim-6 model, developed in the context of human physiology. The system is first analysed by progressively removing data while estimating an increasing number of parameters, and subsequently by investigating total uncertainty under model-form misspecification of nonlinear resistance in the pulmonary compartment.